Poll: Props 1, 47 In Good Shape; 45, 46 Stumbling

A new Field Poll finds support for California’s two health-related statewide ballot measures is slipping – but voters continue to back the water bond and a proposal to reduce sentences for some drug and property crimes.

Conventional wisdom says a ballot measure must poll well above 50 percent to have a shot at passing. The water bond and criminal sentence reduction measures only barely top that magic majority mark in the latest Field Poll. But they’re opposed by fewer than a quarter of likely voters – and that hasn’t changed lately.

So Field’s Mark DiCamillo says Propositions 1 and 47 appear to be in good shape. “We’re not seeing big ‘no’ side campaign funding on either of these propositions. So I would say the poll measures pretty much stand on their own. They’re favored by 2-to-1, and I would expect they both have a very good chance of passage,” DiCamillo says.

The two health-related ballot measures are in much more trouble. Support for Propositions 45 and 46 has dropped by more than half over the last few months…as opponents have spent more than $100 million combined. Each measure now only has the backing of about three in 10 likely California voters.