California Economy Expected To Grow More Slowly

A new economic forecast from the Center for Business and Policy Research at the University of the Pacific shows the economy continues to grow despite an uncertain policy environment. But California should expect slower growth compared to recent years. Non-farm payroll jobs are expected to increase 1.5 percent over the next year, half the pace of the previous four years.

Dr. Jeff Michael, an economist and director of the Center for Business and Policy Research, says slower growth is expected with an economy nearing full employment.

He says one notable change in the forecast is slower population growth – which is due to several factors.

“Lower birth rates that are staying down near historic low levels, high housing costs which cause some people to relocate and deter people moving in," says Michael. He says the current political climate may also mean reduced immigration. 

Sacramento’s nonfarm jobs are expected to increase a little over one percent this year to 1.5 percent in 2018. The report says San Francisco should maintain the fastest regional job growth, over 2 percent in 2017 and 2018, despite slow growth in its housing stock and low unemployment.