The economic benefits of the mandate are expected to exceed the costs: The costs could run $289 billion over the lifetime of the rule while the economic benefits could reach at least $338 billion — a net benefit of $48 billion, according to air board staff.
Electric cars now cost more to purchase, but price drops plus savings on gas and maintenance would add up, saving consumers an estimated $3,200 over ten years for a 2026 car and $7,500 for a 2035 car, the air board calculated.
In an effort to address consumer reluctance, manufacturers would be required to meet minimum performance, durability and warranty requirements for zero-emission vehicles. Cars must be able to drive at least 150 miles on a single charge, up from the current 50-mile mandate, and batteries will need to last longer and carry a manufacturer’s warranty.
The goal is to ensure that new and used zero-emission vehicles “can serve as full replacement vehicles for conventional vehicles in every household in California,” the air board says.
Environmental advocates had raised concerns about previous drafts, saying they ramped up too slowly, allowing millions of cars powered by fossil fuels to remain on the roads since the average car is driven for 12 years.
Starting at a sales requirement of 35% is “a marked improvement,” said Don Anair, research and deputy director of the Union of Concerned Scientists’ clean transportation program. Still, he said, “It’s kind of the bare minimum. So we really see that as a floor, not a ceiling, to get started.”
Environmental groups on Wednesday urged the board to set a more stringent target of 75% zero-emission sales in 2030. They also are seeking mandatory equity provisions that would ensure electric cars are in communities that suffer the most pollution.
Under the proposed rule, car manufacturers would be allowed to meet a small portion of their sales targets through 2031 with credits aimed at helping low-income residents. For instance, they could earn credits for selling less-expensive new zero-emission cars costing less than $20,000 or ensure that vehicles are offered up for resale in the state.
Last year Newsom approved a $3.9 zero-emission vehicle budget that included about $1.2 billion to bolster rebates and other clean-car incentives, particularly for low-income and disadvantaged communities. Another $300 million will go toward building charging and fueling infrastructure.
Newsom on Wednesday touted the $10 billion zero-emission vehicle funding package in his January budget blueprint, which he said would “expand access and affordability for all.”
The state auditor has warned the Air Resources Board, however, that it “has generally not determined the effects its incentive programs have on consumers’ behavior and thus, has overstated (greenhouse gas) emissions reductions its incentive programs achieve.”
While battery-powered cars emit no pollutants, the generation of the power that runs them does. However, air-quality regulators say emissions from electricity generation are far lower than from vehicles. Much of California’s electricity comes from natural gas, solar, wind and hydropower.
Other nations are on similar paths toward phasing out fossil fuel-powered vehicles, but no state or nation has adopted a rule that bans them. However, the European Union is considering a large package of climate change laws that would, in effect, prohibit fossil fuel cars by requiring a 100% cut in all carbon dioxide emissions by 2035.
Washington state’s Legislature also recently passed a transportation bill that set a goal that all cars sold, purchased or registered in the state by 2030 be electric vehicles. But it’s not an enforceable regulation like California’s would be if enacted this summer.
California’s proposal comes as gas prices soar to more than $5 per gallon in the state. Critics say the Newsom administration is sending mixed messages about gasoline-powered cars by proposing rebates for car owners.
The zero-emission vehicle proposal will require approval of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for implementation. Since the 1960s, the state has led the country in cleaning up the exhaust that creates California’s choking smog. The federal Clean Air Act gave California authority to set its own tailpipe emissions standards.
The Trump administration acted to eliminate that authority but President Joe Biden’s EPA overturned the decision in March. Newsom called it “a major victory for the environment, our economy, and the health of families across the country” and said the state “looks forward to partnering with the Biden Administration to make a zero-emission future a reality for all Americans.”
