Updated 1:45 p.m.
Gov. Gavin Newsom marked the beginning of his second term Friday by trying to contrast his agenda with that of Republican leaders in rival states who have moved to restrict abortion, voting access and LGBTQ rights.
In his inaugural speech, Newsom acknowledged California’s history of colonization and racist policies, but says the state is now “freedom’s force multiplier” and is “protecting liberty from a rising tide of oppression taking root in statehouses.”
The governor took the oath of office on the two-year anniversary of the Jan. 6 capitol riot, an “unthinkable” event he said was “fomented by people who have a very different vision of America’s future.”
In his second term, Newsom faces an arguably tougher landscape than when he was first sworn in four years ago.
But the former lieutenant governor and San Francisco mayor also has a higher national profile following the COVID-19 pandemic, defeating a recall election in 2021 and emerging as a critic of both GOP governors and, at times, his own political party.
The governor’s second term will likely see him drilling down on his highest priorities – homelessness, policies to mitigate climate change and social issues like reproductive and LGBTQ rights – which could also serve to lay the groundwork for a platform for higher office.
Though he overwhelmingly won a second term as governor of California last year, the dominant discourse surrounding Newsom in 2022 concerned not his gubernatorial campaign, but whether he will run for president in the near future.
Newsom has repeatedly tried to put any speculation to rest, saying he has “sub-zero” interest in running and personally telling President Joe Biden he would support his reelection in 2024. On the campaign trail, Newsom pledged to serve all four years of his second term, which will also be his last due to term limits.
Though he maintains he’s uninterested in the national spotlight, the governor has found ways to attract it by picking fights with the Republican governors of Florida and Texas. He spent his own campaign funds to buy billboards in other states promoting abortion rights in California.
Even his inaugural ceremony hints that Newsom just can’t stay away from national issues. The Friday event – taking place on the two-year anniversary of the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol – will be a “celebration of freedom, democracy, and diversity” and “stand in peaceful contrast to the violent insurrection and assault on our democracy which occurred two years ago,” according to his inaugural committee.
Second-term priorities
As he begins his fifth year in office, Newsom has plenty of challenges to tackle. Chief among them, political strategists say, is that Californians will expect to see results on top issues facing the state such as housing and homelessness.
While running for his first term in office, Newsom made a campaign promise to build 3.5 million new homes, a pledge he has fallen well short of.
The COVID-19 pandemic complicated many of his first-term plans, though, and Californians gave Newsom good marks for how he handled the crisis during his first two years.
“It’s hard to get a lot done when you have to govern from crisis,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist and former spokesperson for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. “This [second term] is his opportunity to try to implement things that are important to him and his vision.”
Newsom has already made strides on policies to address climate change and championed a new system to compel people with severe mental illness off the streets and into treatment. He implemented a ban on sales of new gas-powered vehicles by 2035 and tightened the timelines for California’s renewable energy goals.
But those relatively new policies either haven’t taken effect or haven’t been in place long enough to produce results.
Newsom will likely continue to demand more from local governments to do their part in building housing and sheltering people experiencing homelessness. In November, he held back $1 billion in local grant funding for homelessness, saying city and county plans did not go far enough.
He later released the money after convening local officials, but the episode served as a warning sign to cities and counties to step up their efforts to reduce homelessness in the coming years.
Will the national spotlight draw Newsom’s focus from issues at home?
By spending time fighting with Republican governors like Ron DeSantis of Florida or Greg Abbott of Texas, Newsom risks distracting himself – and his supporters – from his own agenda, Stutzman said.
“There's plenty of issues facing California and he does work on those issues. But he's obscuring that work when he focuses on these national political ambitions,” he said
On the other hand, the state’s most pressing problems could motivate the governor to keep his attention focused at home if he wants a political career after his term ends in 2026.
“If you're going to run for higher office, you need to have a record to show,” said Steve Maviglio, a Democratic political strategist who served as spokesperson for former Governor Gray Davis.
He pointed to Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), the former governor from Massachusetts whose 2012 presidential platform prominently featured a state-sponsored healthcare plan known as “RomneyCare,” which he signed in 2006.
Maviglio said if Newsom decides to run for president, he’ll need something “big” to plant his flag on, such as his protection of abortion rights or expanding health care for undocumented immigrants, to earn support from Democratic voters.
“He’s going to be a very formidable candidate” for higher office, Maviglio said. “He's done a lot of things to keep a lot of Democratic constituencies happy and he certainly will be able to raise the money.”
Less money, more problems
California’s state budget has been flush with cash in recent years, allowing Newsom and state lawmakers to spend big on bread-and-butter issues like education and infrastructure while kicking stimulus checks and tax rebates to voters.
But with the threat of a recession looming, state budget analysts project a $24 billion deficit next year.
Newsom “has been playing Oprah and handing out money to everybody who needs it,” Maviglio said. “Now it's going to be the opposite – things are going to get cut. You're going to have to say no a lot. That's never good for a politician.”
The state has strong budget reserves and legislative fiscal analysts say lawmakers can likely avoid cuts by delaying some spending planned for programs. But if California’s fiscal problems persist, the governor could have to make some tough decisions during his second term.
Newsom and lawmakers “want to do more on climate. They want to do more on housing. They want to do more on a number of issues, and they just won't have the funds to do that,” Maviglio said.
The governor has made clear he does not want to raise taxes, but Maviglio said a recession could force that discussion, especially if it lasts multiple years and funding for his priorities dries up.
The governor must provide his budget proposal by Tuesday, which will provide a first glimpse at how he plans to address the forecasted budget deficit and his spending priorities for the first year of his final term.
