Sacramento set records for excessive heat over the weekend. And while the next few days will be a little cooler — with a return of the delta breeze and highs in the mid 90s — forecasters are looking at another 100-degree stretch heading into the weekend.
Here’s what happened this weekend and what to expect over the coming week, and why researchers think climate change will make these “extreme heat days” more common.
Sacramento breaks 88-year-old heat record
Sunday’s high was 109, which broke a record for the date set in 1935.
David Rowe with the National Weather Service in Sacramento also said the delta breeze wasn’t able to cool temperatures as much overnight.
“This weekend, the marine layer was really squished down and the delta breeze was pretty weak. It's starting to come back this morning,” Rowe said. “Travis Air Force Base has had gusts of around 30 miles an hour and temperatures are actually not too bad over there.”
The heat forced officials to cancel horse racing at the opening weekend of the California State Fair at Cal Expo and races at the Placerville Speedway. Volunteers in Sacramento delivered water to unhoused residents.
Triple-digit heat expected to return later in the week
Monday’s expected high in Sacramento is 102. Tuesday and Wednesday will likely peak in the mid-90s, with triple digits returning Thursday and through the weekend.
“We were in the high heat risk category over the weekend, but now the next few days we're going to be cooling down a bit,” Rowe said. “So back down into moderate heat risk through about Wednesday. And then it looks like we're going to start to warm up again heading into next weekend.”
As of Monday morning, the weather service is forecasting highs of 102 and 106 degrees on Thursday and Friday heading into the weekend. Overnight temperatures are expected to remain cooler through Wednesday, though will start to drift higher as temperatures increase toward the end of the week.
Coming years will see more record-breaking hot days
The number of extreme heat days in California is on the rise. With that come record-breaking high temperatures. Recent studies have found an increasing number of global record-breaking heat events, often outnumbering record-breaking cold events in recent years.
Researchers characterize an extreme heat day in Sacramento as one that surpasses 103.9 degrees. Historically, Sacramento saw about five days per year that rose above that temperature.
But that average has increased to about 12 to 15 days a year.
“It's a pretty dramatic increase in the total number of extreme heat days per year,” said Paul Ullrich, a professor of regional and global climate modeling at UC Davis.
By the end of the century, he says Sacramento will likely see around 40 extreme heat days a year.
“These aren't the heat waves that we've had 30, 40 years ago,” he said. “These ones are inevitably going to be warmer on average just because our average temperatures are much warmer.”
Ullrich said rising average high temperatures comes as a result of climate change. But the increases in temperature don’t always follow a steady line. Instead, he describes it as a stair-like pattern upward.
During La Niña years, Ullrich said California typically sees “relatively flat temperatures.” But as the state transitions into an El Niño period, temperatures heat up.
“That's basically what we're seeing now,” he said. “And as a consequence, I anticipate that this higher average temperature will then persist for the next seven, eight years or so until we end up at the next El Niño, and then it's another step up.”
As Sacramento’s high temperatures continue to rise, Ullrich says the area’s climate will begin to look more like Phoenix, Arizona.
Stay safe in the heat
Lake Natoma on Thursday July 13, 2023.Andrew Nixon / CapRadio
Rowe reminded anyone heading out to summer events to prepare for the heat.
“The State Fair is going on here for the next few weeks and anybody heading out to that, just be cautious for the hot weather,” he said.
The prolonged excessive heat can make people vulnerable to heat-related illness. Officials say it’s important to stay hydrated, limit exposure to sun in the hottest parts of the afternoon if possible, and be aware of symptoms in yourself and others.
"The warning signs of heat-related illness vary, but it can start off with sweating, muscle cramps, weakness, headaches, nausea, vomiting, paleness, tiredness, dizziness, confusion and change in mental status,” state public health director Dr. Tomas Aragon said last week. “Their judgment can become poor and they may not realize that they're getting into trouble."
Officials recommend:
- Drink plenty of fluids, especially before you go out (but avoid alcohol, which will dehydrate you faster)
- Stay in an air-conditioned room, if you can
- Stay out of the sun, if you can
- Wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothes
- Check up on relatives and neighbors
You should also take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. If possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening.
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