By Kristen Hwang, CalMatters
Another COVID-19 wave is hitting California as the summer ends and kids head back to school.
It’s a familiar story by now, but one that has become perhaps more confusing with time because of changing public health recommendations, new vaccine boosters and our evolving understanding of the virus.
There’s no reason to panic, State Epidemiologist Dr. Erica Pan said, with population immunity at high levels.
“Over the course of the last three-and-a-half years, we’re fairly sure everybody’s been exposed or vaccinated at least once, or exposed and infected whether they knew it or not,” Pan said. “There’s thankfully a lot more immunity overall.”
The test positivity rate has been growing steadily over the past two months, increasing about 8 percentage points since July to a 12.5% seven-day average. That’s a higher positivity rate than last winter’s surge, although testing data has become less reliable as access decreased and testing rates plummeted. But wastewater surveillance networks confirm what the testing data suggests: COVID-19 infections are on the rise across California.
The second indicator of COVID-19’s comeback — hospitalizations — is also trending upward. The number of daily new hospital admissions increased more than 87% since the start of summer.
The Labor Day holiday will surely fuel more transmission and hospitalizations, but hospitals are nowhere near the brink of collapse that previous surges threatened. The uptick in cases is not having a “dramatic impact on hospitals” so far, California Hospitals Association spokeswoman Jan Emerson-Shea said.
Still, public health experts recommend people take the typical precautions to prevent a serious outbreak: vaccinate, mask and isolate.
“Some people are very terrified. Most people are not thinking about (COVID-19) at all. The right answer is somewhere in between,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UCSF Health. “At the minimum we have enough tools to have individual protection without having mandates.”
If you’re wondering what the latest uptick means, you’re not alone. Here are answers to common questions.
What does it mean to be fully vaccinated?
At this point, vaccination is one of the most confusing aspects of the constantly mutating Sars-CoV-2 virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now advises people age 6 and older who are not immunocompromised to have at least one bivalent Moderna or Pfizer shot to be considered fully vaccinated.
That means if you have never gotten a COVID-19 vaccine before, you only need to get one bivalent shot.
And, if you had previous versions of the vaccine (known as monovalent vaccines), you need to get a bivalent shot to be fully vaccinated.
The bivalent shot was introduced last fall to protect against the highly contagious omicron variant. People who are older than 65 can also get a second dose of the bivalent vaccine if their last one happened at least four months earlier.
The recommendations for children 5 and younger and for those who are immunocompromised are more complex, but the CDC created flow charts to determine your status, and it’s recommended you speak with your doctor.
Should I wait for the new booster?
“It all depends on who you are. Given the uptick in cases right now, if you’re vulnerable you may not want to wait,” Chin-Hong of UCSF said.
The Food and Drug Administration is expected to approve a third version of the vaccine that takes into account more recent variants before the end of September. But, as Chin-Hong said, people who are older than 65 or immunocompromised might not want to wait until that shot is widely available to boost their immunity. The bivalent shot still protects against severe disease, hospitalization and death.
The CDC is expected to make age-specific recommendations Sept. 12 during a regulatory meeting, but Chin-Hong said waiting for an updated vaccine is “an interesting and nuanced thing.”
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