New report says California’s Prop 47 led to a major decrease in incarceration rate, slight increase in crime

California voters passed Proposition 47 a decade ago to reduce the state’s incarcerated population, after the U.S. Supreme Court ordered the state to address overcrowding in its prisons. 

A new year-long study says in the time since voters passed Prop 47, the measure has lowered the state’s jail and prison populations significantly, while also contributing to a slight uptick in some crime. 

Prop 47 brought down penalties for some drug and theft-related crimes. Since it went into effect, the state’s incarceration rate is now down 30%, after decades of prison overcrowding, according to a new report from the non-partisan Public Policy Institute of California.

Co-author Magnus Lofstrom said Prop 47 led to a slight uptick in property crime, especially auto thefts, but not violent crime. 

“It's also encouraging. It shows that in spite of these big changes, it didn't lead to significantly large impacts, broad impacts on crime,” he said. 

The report found the state’s clearance rate, or reported crimes that lead to an arrest and referral to prosecution, dropped 3% two years after voters passed Prop 47, down to 11%. The clearance rate then dropped to 7% in 2022, “signaling that a person is half as likely to be apprehended for property crime today, compared to 2014,” the study said. It added the clearance rate for violent crime has remained relatively stable for two decades.

The study went on to say that after Prop 47, lower clearance rates for larceny, or theft without force or threat of force, “led to a modest rise in property crime, with more burglaries (2.9%), auto thefts (1.7%), and larcenies (1.1%). After the pandemic, lower larceny clearance rates led to a rise in car accessory thefts (7.3%) and car break-ins (3.9%); burglary clearance rates also dropped, raising commercial burglaries (3.2%).”

The study showed, however, that crime rates in the state are much lower than they were in the 80s and 90s, but ticking up since the pandemic. That’s a deviation from national trends – when measured without California, crime is still decreasing nationally. 

The report said the measure saved the state about $800 million, which is going into community programs.

The study doesn’t cover Prop 36, the November ballot measure that would roll back aspects of Prop 47. 

Sacramento County Sheriff Jim Cooper spoke in favor of the new measure last week at a Senate hearing.

“The public’s mad. I see them everyday when I’m out there,” he said. 

The Yes on 36 campaign – whose top funders are Walmart, Target and Home Depot – put out a statement saying the uptick in crime noted in the report justifies the higher penalties Prop 36 would enact.